No other crisis has redefined Turkey’s place in regional and international politics as much as the Syrian conflict. Turkey shares its longest land border with Syria, over 900 km. Syria is therefore not merely a foreign policy issue for Turkey but also a domestic one.
While Turkey has shaped the course of the Syrian conflict, the Syrian conflict has in turn shaped the dynamics of Turkish domestic politics and international relations for more than a decade. The relationship between Turkey and the Syrian crisis has been a story of mutual reshaping. Almost all ethnic, sectarian and ideological identity cleavages that exist in Syria also exist in Turkey. Turkey also hosts around 3.6 million Syrian refugees, which has led to the emergence of far-right and xenophobic parties and redefined the nature of nationalist politics in the country.
With the fall of Assad, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his government feel that their policy has been vindicated. As actors with whom Turkey has developed close ties with over the years are poised to assume more influence and power in Damascus, Ankara is set to gain essential levers of influence in Syria.
Before the fall of Assad, four key goals featured prominently in Turkey’s Syria policy: a partial refoulement of Syrian refugees; border security; rolling back the political and territorial gains of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF); and extracting some concessions from the regime for its allied Syrian opposition groups in any negotiations.
With the fall of the regime, the fourth goal has become obsolete. But Ankara will try to achieve its other goals through its influence with the new leaders in Damascus and its connection with the Arab community and Arab tribes – while maintaining military pressure on the SDF.
With the Assad regime gone, there are expectations within Turkey that Syrian refugees will return home. Although Syrians living in neighbouring countries, including Turkey, have already started heading back to Syria, the country has been ravaged by 13 years of a brutal civil war and conditions are still dire. Therefore, Syrians will not be able to return home en masse, at least not in the immediate term. Turkish politicians – not least the opposition – and public figures should refrain from inflating expectations regarding the return of Syrian refugees.
For Syrians who do want to return, Turkey, Syria’s Arab neighbours, the EU, and Gulf countries should meet to devise a roadmap to help facilitate this. These countries should also meet regularly to discuss humanitarian aid and reconstruction in Syria. Such steps will reduce the pressure on the governments of Syria’s neighbours.
